Tag Archives: Weather

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Purple Squiggles are Undersea Cables

Well, our favorable southwest winds have been removed from the forecast. However 50% of the forecast content has changed over the last three days as the approaching cold front wobbles its way here and loses energy in the process. The predicted seas Tuesday were acceptable with a SWly to put wind in the sails, but now since all three days will require us to motor (the average heading because of current crab is 270° even though the course is 297°) the lower wind velocities and swell Wednesday and Thursday look more attractive. And of course we want to arrive at Fort Pierce on a flood tide this year without having to linger offshore waiting for slack water. So Wednesday may be a better choice (if the weather forecast holds).

All told it is a 13-15 hour trip from Mangrove Cay to Fort Pierce so arriving at 1700 or later means rising at 0400 like last year to arrive between 1700 and 1900 with sunset at ~2000. 0400 is an unfriendly hour, and this year the moon will be but a sliver. It will be dark.

TUESDAY, 7 May: WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FORT PIERCE FLOOD FROM 1554  TO 2209 MAX 3.7KTS

WEDNESDAY, 8 May: WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FEET.
FORT PIERCE FLOOD FROM 1635  TO 2255 MAX 3.6KTS

THURSDAY, 9 May: WEST WINDS 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
FORT PIERCE FLOOD FROM 1714 TO 2338 MAX 3.4KTS

Ah, Calm

29 April 2013, Crab Cay

By late yesterday, we were ready to MOVE! Think of a game of blanket toss controlled by people angry with one another and refusing to synchronize. The wind, indeed went more southerly, and while Janet still managed to create an excellent meatloaf in the pressure cooker, but it was a bit of a circus. This morning we broad reached away from Powell Cay at 1000 to make sure we arrived at Crab Cay at high tide. We made it quickly in 22kts of wind from behind our left shoulders. We motored in slowly and were pleased to find depths that would allow us to leave on any tide. They didn’t quite match the chart, but that’s not uncommon here. Before we come back, we are going to cache all the Google Earth images we can as they are much newer than the charts and while they contain no depth data, they do show bottom contour information. Even though it’s blowing more than half a gale, this place is comfortable. Only the Batelco tower and a rare passing vehicle on the highway near it (and the abandoned back-hoe) hint of humans.

Trade Winds are Settling In

Trade WindsNature’s wheel is turning. Cold Fronts are becoming less frequent and are dissipating before reaching the islands. The longer days mean more atmospheric heating. Temperatures are warming. Warmer air pulls moisture from the ocean. Humidity is going up. Showers are showing up in the forecast more frequently. Trade Winds are settling in. People have begun migrating west and north. We won’t for a while.

The prediction to the left is in 12 hour slices starting today.

Ashfall

The heavy rains yesterday morning failed to suppress the wildfires sufficiently to prevent them rekindling with today’s heavy winds (near 30 mph in the pm). We ended up being driven below early this evening by another ashfall. Some of the ash is of the pellet variety which reflects a blow-torch like fire. Fortunately no infrastructure has been involved or threatened.

The winds also played havoc with several late day arrivals. Quite a few white knuckle landings — in slips that is. Things remain lumpy and lurching as swell from the Sea of Abaco rounds the point and marches into the harbour. The usual low tide relief from this phenomenon is absent because the north wind has pushed the water levels up and the bar affords less protection at low tide.

Swells are bent and then reflect and lumpy and lurchy are the result.

Swells (yellow) are bent and then reflect (red) and lumpy and lurchy are the result.

Wildfire Upwind, the Weather is…

This morning dawned gray. But it was the gray of smoke — blown our way from the southwest by winds gusting 35+ It smells of burning scrub rather than rubbish. There is carbonized ash (HOT fire type) all over everything. Where it lands, static electricity and/or salt makes it stick. We thought we left this in California!

The weather here has caught folk’s attention, Bahamian and visitor alike. With a spike in 2007, it has been cooler and dryer here over the last five years (from 1 Nov to 24 Mar each year). The average winds are about 2% slower, and only 2.5% gustier (2012 vs average). [Keep in mind the force of the wind varies as the square of the speed -- a 10 mph breeze is 4 times as forceful as a 5 mph one. This means that the perception of windiness derives from the ratio of the gust squared divided by the average wind speed squared.] The data is presented below. Click on any chart to get the gallery.