Well, the early rain was just that, and we went through the night with few, if any, showers. The wind has picked up to around 12-15 knots gusting a bit higher, and the wind driven “Banks Surge” has started. The water is up about two feet in the basin. Love these floating docks, but the ramp is approaching level.
The graphic above shows some improved chances (lower) that that winds will reach tropical storm force here, but we are dealing in probabilities and deviation is reality. The graphic below seems to tell a different story.
When and where this system turns is key, and in the history of storm prediction, course changes have always been a challenge because they usually depend on the interactions with another system — in this case one moving down from “The Middle.” Updates will be based on changes. if the storm evolves as presently predicted, there won’t be much to say.
Higher gusts seem to be arriving with some more rain, and we are still looking at around 0100 Monday for the storm center to be at this latitude. That will be a little better than the halfway point of this long duration event.
A lot of people chanting “Go East” would be good.