The good news is the storm continues to track as predicted. While the winds forecast for our location haven’t gotten any worse, they haven’t improved. The Tropical Wind 100% profile continues to crawl up the coast like a big purple slug looking for lunch.That steep probability profile at the Outer Banks (22 sm from here) is a good indicator it will be gusty here. Since the probabilities are for a longer than one minute average wind speed greater than 34 knots, this allows for shorter duration gusts to exceed that number.
We got an email from the marina at which we summered letting us know if we wanted to be hauled out we better be asking yesterday. On the Chesapeake, the good news in that is the prospect of surge flooding there is reduced with an easterly storm track. The chance of down-flooding from rain, particularly at high tide, remains. [During Irene which also went east of the Chesapeake, the water blew out of our slip and left the boat grounded for almost two days.] We hope our friends from Delaware north are taking this very seriously, the amplification from the oncoming system from the Midwest is nothing to discount.
Meanwhile not to far from (25 sm) the ranch, the winds have picked up and swung a bit to the west. Our wind instruments are showing pretty much the same.
The westerly gustiness is what woke me this morning. It rolled the boat enough to starboard, I banged my nose on the (padded) mast. I don’t think I’ll be doing much with hot liquids for a while.
It looks as it there are about 2 inches of stone left showing on the bulkhead, the ramps I can see are level, and there are another eight feet of floating dock piling left. The shorter free-standing piling is not much of a concern given the wind direction. It is still possible this area will see another 2-3 feet of flooding.
This storm is still south of us and will be until tomorrow morning. However there is that tiny little tick upward on the barometer trace. That can be just a day/night effect, so the best indicator this is over will be when it’s over.
Last night I dispatched either Hekl or Jekl. This morning Jekl, or Hekl, seems more cautious — it’s likely because it was only 59°F* this morning…or I’m going a little more nuts.
*The high temp predicted for Tuesday.